Оценка влияния способов агрегации ветроэнергетических установок на эффективность краткосрочного прогнозирования выработки электроэнергии
Аннотация
Переменный характер энергии ветра требует высокой точности прогнозирования выработки ветроэлектрических станций для оптового рынка электроэнергии. Мощность, выдаваемая отдельными ветроэнергетическими установками (ВЭУ), объединенными в ветроэлектрические станции, может значительно отличаться из-за эффекта «затенения» ветроустановок друг другом, препятствий и др. Для учета факта затенения и повышения точности прогнозов вместо построения одной модели для всей ветроэлектрической станции могут применяться несколько прогнозных моделей для групп ВЭУ и отдельных ВЭУ. В статье представлено исследование способов агрегации отдельных ВЭУ для повышения эффективности краткосрочного прогнозирования выработки ветроэлектрических станций. Предложен новый способ объединения ветроустановок в группы с помощью метода иерархической агломеративной кластеризации по расстоянию, основанному на методе динамической трансформации временной шкалы (DTW-расстоянию), который позволил снизить среднеквадратичную ошибку прогноза на 8,7 % по отношению к прогнозу на уровне ветроэлектрической станции.
Литература
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