Considering the Correlation Component in Estimating the Load Losses of Power and Electricity in an EPS with Distributed Generation under Probabilistically Determined Loads
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24160/0013-5380-2026-9-17-25Keywords:
distribution electric networks, distributed generation, load curve characteristics, power and electricity lossesAbstract
The article addresses probabilistic and statistical methods for determining the total load losses of power and electricity in a power distribution network with distributed generation. The aim of the study is to compare the accuracy of existing and proposed models for the daily forecast of technical losses of power and electricity in a distribution network with partially determined information on load and generation schedules. Three analytical models are considered: the mode of mathematical expectations (ME) of nodal powers, consideration of the matrix of correlation moments of powers together with the MO of voltages, and allocation of a subinterval of maximum loads. It has been found that the estimation of losses based solely on the ME of loads yields a large error. In networks with distributed generation, in which the daily ME of the nodal powers may be close to zero, the classical methods based on the shape coefficient and the number of hours of highest losses are not applicable. For practical calculations, it is recommended to use methods based on the ME of loads with full or partial consideration of their correlation, as well as dividing the calculation interval into subintervals of characteristic modes (maximum and minimum loads, periods of conditionally constant load, etc.).
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